Democrats have a voter registration advantage over Republicans across the country ahead of November’s midterms, according to an analysis from the University of Virginia released Friday which found 12 million more registered Democrats than Republicans.
Analysts with Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a prominent election handicapper and political analysis team run out of the university, found that Democrats make up 40 percent of voters in states that register their voters by political parties. Republicans make up 29 percent of those voters, while independents make up 28 percent.
Just over half of states register voters by party, with Democrats holding an edge in 19 of the 31 states that do, according to Crystal Ball. Republicans are the plurality in 12 states, while independents make up the plurality in 10 states.
The other 29 states don’t register voters by party, including many midwestern states home to major House and Senate battlegrounds. So the registration numbers hardly show a complete picture. Yet, the numbers are a boost for Democrats looking to reduce or eliminate GOP majorities in the House and Senate this fall.
“This is not the best of times for the Democratic Party. No White House; no Senate; no House of Representatives; and a clear minority of governorships and state legislatures in their possession,” wrote Rhodes Cook, a senior columnist with Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
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“Yet the Democrats approach this fall’s midterm elections with an advantage in one key aspect of the political process — their strength in states where voters register by party.”