Will Kenyan Dennis Kimetto’s marathon world record of 2:02:57, set at Berlin Marathon in 2014, ever get beaten and will elite men marathoners be able to break the two-hour mark? A team of researchers led by the University of Colorado Boulder believe they can – and it’s all down to the maths.

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They have laid out a series of mathematical calculations that show that elite men marathoners could shave about four and a half minutes off the current world record.

 Postdoctoral researcher Wouter Hoogkamer, who led the new study, explains the calculations for running a marathon in under two hours include the baseline physiological capacity to run Kimetto’s time. The team then considered biomechanical changes that could reduce energy consumption and improve running economy.

“People have been thinking about the magical sub-two-hour marathon for a long time,” said Hoogkamer. “Our calculations show that a sub-two-hour marathon time could happen right now, but it would require the right course and a lot of organisation.”

So how can they do it? For starters, say the researchers, the athletes would need shoes roughly 100 grams lighter than Kimetto’s world record shoes, which weighed 230 grams, or just over eight ounces each. A previous study led by Hoogkamer and Professor Roger Kram showed running in 130-gram shoes could shave 57 seconds off a marathon time.

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In addition, a record-breaking elite runner would do best running the first 13 miles of the race as a loop course behind a wedge of marathon ‘pacemakers.’ “He would need to draft behind them on a route that blocks the wind like a paved loop through a pine forest”, said new study co-author Kram of the Department of Integrative Physiology.

“A 1971 study by a British scientist showed that one runner drafting one metre behind another runner in a wind tunnel can reduce air resistance by 93%. But even reducing air resistance for the drafting runner by just 36 percent would improve running economy by 2.7% the savings needed to facilitate a marathon time of 1:59.59 for an athlete capable of running a solo 2:03:00 marathon.”

The second half of the race, according to the new study, should be slightly downhill but still within the regulations of the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF), with four top runners in a line, one behind the other.

 Hoogkamer said: “They would need to take turns blocking the air resistance and cooperatively “drafting” off of each other. This could reduce the metabolic cost of the drafting runners by about 5.9%, shaving about three minutes off the current world record.”

Alternatively, the CU Boulder study showed marathon runners in the second half of the hypothetical course could also shave off about three minutes of time in the marathon if they were lucky enough to have a strong tailwind approaching 13mph.