New Jersey congressional candidate Tom Malinowski (D) maintains a single-digit lead over Rep. Leonard LanceLeonard LanceGun debate to shape 2020 races GOP fears Trump backlash in suburbs Bottom Line MORE (R-N.J.) one week before the midterm elections in the district where President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE’s Bedminster, N.J., resort is located.
Malinowki leads Lance by 3 percentage points, 47 percent to 44 percent, among likely voters in the Monmouth University poll released Wednesday. 6 percent of likely voters in the poll remain undecided and 2 percent say they are supporting an independent candidate.
The two candidates’ shares of the vote has remained relatively unchanged from a Monmouth poll of the race in September, which registered Malinowski leading Lance 46 percent to 43 percent at the time.
One important factor benefiting Malinowski in the race in a gap in voter enthusiasm registered between Democrats and Republicans in the poll, with 88 percent of Democrats surveyed and 70 percent of Republicans telling Monmouth pollsters that they have a lot of interest in the race.
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“This is a rare district in Monmouth’s polling where we actually see the enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans getting larger rather than smaller,” poll director Patrick Murray said in the news release accompanying the poll.
Lance, who voted against the Republican tax-reform plan last December, still faces the plan’s unpopularity in New Jersey’s 7th district, Murray added.
“Tax policy is usually a slam dunk issue for Republican candidates. But Lance can’t escape voter discontent with this GOP plan, even though he voted against it,” he said. 54 percent of likely voters in the district said they disapproved of the tax plan.
Monmouth’s poll contacted 356 likely voters in the district between Oct. 25-29, and reports a margin of error of 5.2 percentage points, while the margin of error for the candidates’ vote share was 7.3 percentage points.